Summer Crop Report

I would like to apologize to everyone who has come to rely on my weekly reports for insight and planning. I understand how valuable this information is, and sharing it is something I believe benefits all of us in the industry.

That being said, I experienced a terrible situation in the home I have been renting involving longstanding moisture intrusion and mold contamination beneath the crawl space, which had been circulating through the house for years via the HVAC system, damaged ducting, broken vents, and numerous other unsafe conditions below the home. As a result, I became seriously ill and now find myself without a safe long-term place to live.

The last two weeks have been unbelievably difficult. I will likely lose most of my porous belongings — clothing, shoes, bedding, blankets, upholstered fabrics, books, and more. I will not go further into those details, despite it understandably being the primary thing on my mind right now.

Even through all of this, mangoes are always on my mind and I was still able to glean some crop insight, I think partly because there is finally some clarity. At this point, I have a firmer grasp on what appears to be coming, which remains, as previously reported, a June gloom on round fruit. The orchards will continue to deliver with very bizarre timing, and I think this is very important.

The Current Influx
In today’s world, where serious climate issues are affecting each varietal differently and weather patterns have become increasingly difficult to predict, the orchards are producing anomalies unlike anything we have historically relied upon. I have been writing these reports for many years, and one of the most difficult realities of climate change is not simply the fluctuation in fruit volumes, but the complete lack of dependable patterns. Even more challenging is the lack of uniformity in how each varietal, each season, each region, and even each microregion responds.

Climate change deniers have often misunderstood this reality. In many ways, it mirrors a market that refuses to evolve — the only true constant now is the lack of clarity itself. Which should be the alarm.

Currently, there is a substantial amount of fruit still coming from the Oaxaca orchards, despite nearly all of us in the industry having reported that by May 20th the southern regions would be winding down and gaps would begin to emerge.  But the fruit has continued and in a very voluminous way, mind you they are mostly 10cnts, but still.  Could anyone have predicted this? Perhaps. But considering the complexities surrounding generally inevitable late season rain and the quality concerns that come with, I believe the conservative numbers that were presented were entirely reasonable..

Oaxaca typically does not run this long commercially in the export sector. Normally, by this stage of the season, the weather pattern shifts — rains arrive, humidity builds rapidly, and quality begins to deteriorate as mature, peak-brix fruit collides with excessive moisture and unstable harvesting conditions. Historically, if Oaxaca stretched this late, it was usually only to bridge the Nayarit gap, and even then the industry was often testing the limits of acceptable quality.

This year, however, the weather pattern never fully transitioned. The prolonged dry heat impacting northern production regions also persisted across much of the south, while the expected sustained rains and heavy humidity largely failed to materialize. At the same time, rainfall that did occur was inconsistent and highly localized, creating uneven orchard behavior from region to region and even ranch to ranch. Instead of orchards moving in synchronized harvest cycles, fruit matured in staggered waves, extending the tail end of the crop far beyond what most anticipated.

That is what made this southern season so difficult to predict. Traditional forecasting models rely heavily on historical weather behavior and relatively uniform regional development. But climate volatility is increasingly creating fragmented microclimates where one zone may receive rain, humidity, and stress while another nearby remains dry and stable. The result is highly uneven flowering, maturity, harvest timing, and fruit quality development, making clean projections increasingly difficult across the industry.

For now, Oaxaca is churning out mangoes but is expected to finally wind down next week. Until then, volumes remain surprisingly strong, quality has held together far better than expected, and ample 10-counts. My advice is rather than focusing on blame over a “false sense of scarcity,” perhaps the more important takeaway is that the industry must continue learning how to adapt to increasingly unpredictable climate behavior and recognize opportunity when unexpected supply presents itself.

 

Round Fruit
As Oaxaca begins to finally wind down next week, the industry will start transitioning into the Nayarit season, where round fruit volumes are expected to be significantly compromised due to poor bloom sets earlier in the cycle. What that ultimately translates to in terms of actual market availability is still unclear, and frankly, I am not convinced many people fully know at this point. There is a considerable amount of uncertainty surrounding the crop, which feels understandable given the increasingly erratic weather patterns and lack of uniformity across regions.

Sinaloa is expected to begin harvesting around June 20th, though that date is always somewhat fluid and typically lands within a few days on either side. Once Sinaloa starts, additional fruit will inevitably enter the market, but the true volume remains difficult to quantify. As previously reported, Sinaloa does appear lighter than a normal season, though still notably stronger than Nayarit. Pricing is expected to remain elevated, while sizing profiles are still developing and not yet entirely clear.

Ataulfos
Here is where our original mango of the summer opportunity becomes more complicated. Nayarit is currently moving well with Ataulfos — good sizing, solid volume, and strong overall quality. Prices remain firm, but there are still meaningful promotional opportunities available.

Sinaloa is expected to begin Ataulfos within the next 10-12 days, followed shortly after by the Los Mochis region. However, there is a very real possibility that the Ataulfo season could conclude before the first week of July. At this point, it is increasingly looking like June will be the primary window for Ataulfo promotions and movement this summer.

Mango Queen Specialty Mangoes
For many of you carrying our summer specialty line, we have good news: the program is predicted to begin within the next 10 days, with fruit expected to trickle in throughout most of June and July, and potentially even into August.

That is all I have for you today. I will continue doing my best to juggle mangoes, my current mold situation inflicted upon me by a neglectful homeowner, and the search for a safe place to live. But I will be honest with you — I am struggling right now.