And Then There Was Consensus

Disclaimer: This crop report, like many I write, is told through the lens of Crespo Organic Mangoes, a program I am intricately embedded with.

By now it’s clear — everyone in the industry has landed in the same place. The consensus on the upcoming transition out of the southern regions and into the north is real, and what’s coming is, all things considered, going to be pretty devastating for the industry. Let’s move down the report in order from now to later.

Oaxaca
Oaxaca is on its last few weeks, with anticipation of another few weeks out — expectation is for an ending somewhere around May 15–20.

Round fruit from the south is running mostly 9s, 10s, and 12s. Larger fruit exists but not as amply.

Ataulfos are transitioning into Nayarit.  We are currently harvesting and packing most sizes from Oaxaca— 12 to 18 count — availability is great.  Quality is off the charts flavor-wise. Since the fruit is past peak it is moving through a quicker ripening phase, generating more heat on it’s own. Everyone is moving it quickly so things seem good.

There should be ample fruit to move us through Cinco de Mayo. Prices remain on the high side but, with ad opportunities,  there is generally a good amount of fruit for now until the season ends in mid-July.

This is an opportunity for Crespo Organic customers to prepare for what we do best; create #MangoJoy no matter what. This is the time to prepare, plan and ready for a different kind of summer, one with a lot let round fruit.

Northern Regions: June Gloom
In my Bad News is Good News Crop Report  I warned with more detail about late May & June — it’s getting closer and more clear, and finally the industry is coming along with consensus.

So, as we move into the transition from south to north, it’s important we are all clear that the normal Nayarit onset and beyond is a gigantic problem. There is significantly less fruit. Some say only 10% of normal, others say 30–35%. Either way, most of us have never experienced such a devastating blow in available volumes, especially considering the momentum consumer #MangoJoy has been dancing on for years now.

But it is always in the fine print where the most important details live — so despite the consensus, let’s get real clear: this is an opportunity for those in the Crespo Organic Mango program and those with existing and robust Ataulfo programs, because that mango everyone wants to call honey — I don’t call it that — is puro Mexicana and seems to be the only varietal dealing with the stress of the heat like a native. Meanwhile the gringo varietals from Florida — Kent, Tommy Atkins, and Keitt — are the most affected and the ones that will do the most damage to the industries prized numbers.

Crespo Organic Ataulfo Opportunity & Accolades
Before I move to crop report details, I want to stop and acknowledge the Crespo Organic program partners who have invested alongside us in building our robust Ataulfo programs over the last ten years. And the specialty mangoes over the last 5.

The strength of our organic Ataulfo programs and the Mango Queen specialty line comes directly from the mutual direct trade relationships we have built together. We learned, expanded, and each took on significant risk rather than simply playing it safe with a round mango program. All of us understood that shoppers wanted more variety and flavor diversity, so together we had to master sizing, quality, and temperature-controlled logistics, along with bold, educational display building. Together we not only pushed education down the chain to retail floor staff, but were able — again, together — to bring our signature shopper-level education (#MangoEd) directly into stores. Through Mango Tastings and Cutting Demos, Summer Mango Mania display contests, social media support and activations, events, and a shared dedication and excitement for delivering what shoppers actually want — flavor, diversity, and information, all at a fair price — we built something real. Our organic programs are now primed for this upcoming summer season.

I reported before in my article Cultivating #MangoJoy for Profit that our internal data from 2016 through the articles postdate shows an average increase of about 28% among all customers carrying any organic Ataulfo SKU. In the last two years that has jumped to 31%, with some customers averaging over 50% of all mango sales Atualfo. None of this is an accident. It is the result of direct trade partnerships working to promote a brand, not a box, doing the work year after year.

I am frankly proud of that. And I know the massive community of Ataulfo lovers out there — and it is massive, and it keeps growing — will be giddy to know their mango will flow this summer, bringing not just #MangoJoy but the revenue that is crucial in a season like the one we expect ahead. This is exactly the moment those programs were built for.

Ample supplies of organic Ataulfos will exist until the Mexican season ends.

Nayarit Specifics– Gringo (Round) Mangoes
In Nayarit, as I reported previously, Kent mangoes are the hardest hit, with near-zero flowering and fruit set, followed by Tommy Atkins and then Keitt. Starting around the last weeks of May and running through June, there will be virtually no round mangoes from Mexico. Everyone needs to let that sink in and prepare. Any fruit that does exist in this region will be in extremely high demand.

Sinaloa Hope — Round Mangoes
Sinaloa is looking somewhat better than Nayarit — still well below normal, and Kents remain disastrous here, but there is some fruit. Many orchards at higher elevations, where last-minute cooler nights appeared, were gifted with flowers just in time, and those have been setting and forming. It’s too early to call overall volumes, but for Crespo Organic programs specifically, this is where we have significant orchard volume concentrated in the higher elevations.

Sinaloa Ataulfo’s — Lucky Us, Make Sauce
Ataulfos and specialty mangoes are faring fairly well in this region; however, all are expected to end earlier than normal, with the Ataulfo season closing around mid-July. I am unclear on the end date for the specialty mango season — it should run through most of July — and I will report back when I have more clarity on that.

It’s a really good time to remind everyone of how good the Crespo Organic Sinaloa Sauce recipe is.

 

Mango Queen Opportunities
The Mango Queen specialty mangoes — Mallika, Nam Doc Mai, and Kiew Savoy — are another piece of this season’s opportunity, and I want to acknowledge that this program was not handed to anyone. The Crespo family, led by Jorge, planted these trees long before there was a roadmap for hot water bathing specialty varietals, before there were PLUs, before consumers knew what any of them were. Roberto Crespo Fitch was among the first to plant Thai mango trees in Mexico — a legacy Jorge carried forward. Our wholesale and retail program partners came along for that ride too, taking real risk on what was totally unfamiliar to us all. Together we introduced shoppers to mangoes they had never heard of or seen at retail level. We all, shoppers included, learned alongside each other what worked and what didn’t from the orchard to the hot water bath process, through the display, signage, through culinary and commodity education, through the tasting tables. That collective investment is why Mango Queen specialty mangoes drew significant shopper interest and drove increased overall fruit sales since they debuted — and why this season, with limited round fruit volume, these varieties are an even bigger opportunity.  We are all poised to succeed because of the investment made.

*Availability will be limited and goes first to existing full-season program customers — the ones who took the risk with us from the beginning and helped build what the Mango Queen line is today.

Mochis Meh…
We separate Mochis a lot because of the lack of a hot water bath zone, but for this purpose there’s no separation — it has the same gloomy projections as the rest on round fruit, and the same Ataulfo prowess. The Ataulfos will end early from here as well, predicting mid-July.

Overall Mexican Volumes OG & CV
EMEX has published new forecasts calling for a 60–70% volume reduction versus last year for the foreseeable future. Everyone is in consensus on this.

 

Crespo Organic Customers: The Advantage

We built this brand on a direct trade system, not a brokered one — meaning we own our own orchards, packhouses, and logistics, as well as the marketing and education side. Consumers loyal to the brand know where to get information, know what to do, and support the bumps. Our wholesalers and retailers the same. We absolutely know how to make #MangoJoy out of gigantic organic Ataulfo displays — not because we have to this season, but because we always do. We get to bring out our opulent, dressed Mango Queen specialty mangoes not because there’s nothing else, but because we know this is what our customers want to taste.

Crespo Organic Dried Mangoes- BONUS
Most existing Crespo Organic customers have been incorporating the retail-ready zip-top dried mangoes into their programs and Summer Mango Mania displays for several years now. Available in both 4oz and 1lb UPC retail pouches — Ataulfo and Kent/Keitt — the dried line is a natural extension of the fresh program and, this season especially, a strategic one. With round fruit volumes significantly reduced, dried mangoes keep displays looking full and shoppable, extend the brand footprint on the floor, and give shoppers another way to get their #MangoJoy no matter what the fresh market throws at us. Bulk dried mangoes extend the connection to other parts of the store!

Bad News Can Be Good News
The season ahead will be tough for all, make no mistake,  us too — but with round fruit facing its own challenges, our robust organic Ataulfo programs, the specialty Mango Queen Mangoes and Crespo’s retail ready dried program are all well suited to navigate the difficult times. For those who invested in the full spectrum, it’s a moment to shine.

Plus, we have that Bolsa Mágica surprise for you all later in the season!