Groundhog Day

Today’s crop report echoes the early season’s lack of clarity

It’s true—fruit has been rolling sweetly since we passed the Easter shutdowns just like we said it would. There’s ample supply, all sizes, and pricing seems to be lining up  rather nicely for our upcoming Summer Mango Mania.

So what’s the problem?

The problem is—once again—what was supposed to happen… isn’t. The lack of consensus coming out of the orchards is a little mind boggling, like I have reported all season long. Almost everyone I’ve talked to thought they’d get less fruit than they did. Turns out, there’s more fruit on the trees—especially on the conventional side, especially in Michoacán.

We are currently at a peak in Michoacan and on the downside of Oaxaca, the peak that seemed to last longer than anticipated.  Things seem great but confusion persist at orchard level, which isn’t the same as border level.

So, what’s the current outlook? And maybe more importantly, for my organic Crespo people—how do the next few weeks look as we head into Summer Mango Mania? Will there be #MuchosMangoes?

Yes. But we may suffer a bit of lag heading into it. On big Ataulfos once the south ends and on Tommy’s until large volumes kick in in Nayarit. Once the full transition into the northern regions happens, we’ll be able to go full throttle on promotions.

That transition is happening now. Ataulfos are in motion—mostly 16/18/20/22cnts out of Nayarit. 12/14cnts exists but in smaller ratios, as is normal. We’re still selectively harvesting 12/14s out of the south to fill big customer needs. That southern large fruit? Expect 1–2 more weeks, weather depending.

Too early to tell if Nayarit fruit will size up fast enough to meet the insatiable appetite for big organic fruit. What we do expect is a more balanced size spread compared to the big-heavy southern crop (thanks rain). So, the days of mostly big? Over. But 12/14 exist and 16/18cnts still bring great value, and price points will be strong.

The opportunity is there—but greater for those not stuck in a one-size mindset. It’s a complex landscape. Our stance hasn’t changed: priority goes to those who prioritize the dynamic of selling what the trees produce, which we know is possible!

Round mangoes are a little tight now but promotable volumes (and prices) will hit  around June 5—perfect timing for the June 15 kickoff of Summer Mango Mania #MuchosMangoes.

Mango Queen specialty mangoes will begin to trickle in in the next 10 days with consistent volumes as of the end of May and beginning of June. Priority to full-program customers. A few key launch partners get access too.

I’ll be back next week. It’s all going to move fast for the next several weeks until we simply hunker down and concentrate on volume sales and consumer #MangoJoy! Sinaloa details will be available soon!