Peru Briefing

The U.S. market is extremely short right now across both conventional and organic. Brix levels remain well below target, with lack of maturity throughout all producers. There is widespread picking and packing delays. Weather has been unfavorable, with persistent cloud cover, cold fronts, and limited sunshine slowing maturity development.
As fruit begins to final reach maturity around the end of December, additional complications emerge. Many packhouses shut down for Christmas and New Year, further delaying picking, packing, and shipping. Once packhouses reopen after the first of the year, larger amounts of fruit will need to picked and packed and a large volume is likely to move at once.
There is considerable uncertainty around the real January 2026 volumes. December harvest volumes are estimated to be at least 30% lower. Organic volumes are likely down even more when isolated within the broader picture. Europe is still taking the bulk of organic volumes as a whole.
There is a general consensus that too much immature fruit is being shipped to both the U.S. and Europe, which is expected to result in quality issues at destination. This is largely driven by exporters attempting to meet program commitments, and as often happens, at the expense of ideal maturity and quality.
January is shaping up to be the peak shipping window, with mid-January through February landings expected in the U.S. Peru does have less fruit overall — that is clear. How much less remains difficult to quantify at this stage.

